Carles Manera is professor of economic history at the University of the Balearic Islands and is an advisor to the Bank of Spain. The Balearics finance minister during the PSOE-led coalition government from 2007 to 2011, he is one of the authors of a book Spain 2025: Structure and Social Change. In the opening chapter he analyses Spain's recent economic performance.
In considering economic recovery since 2020, Manera says the main initial driver was the role of the public sector. "There was a clear commitment to stimulating growth through all kinds of aid to an economy emerging from, let’s say, a self-induced coma. Temporary layoff schemes (furlough), subsidies, support for businesses, revisions to tax calendars … all with the backing of the European Union. This is what allowed the wheels of the private economy to start turning again."
Spain's economy is outperforming the rest of Europe, tourism and other services exports being a feature of this growth.
"The tourism sector is robust. Leisure is a hallmark of Western societies, and travel is a fundamental factor. However, this activity causes significant dysfunctions in the areas where it takes place: congestion, saturation, ecological impacts, a pull factor affecting the population, etc., which necessitates actions to mitigate these effects. In this sense, the aim is to contain growth within certain parameters: water consumption, emissions, waste generation, and occupation of physical spaces (rural areas, for example)."
Tourism services, which account for nearly 14% of GDP, are very important in Spain's economic structure, but Manera emphasises that there is a relatively new phenomenon, which is the growth of non-tourism services that reflects the economic diversification that is taking place.
He sees other growth potential in sectors such as biotechnology, robotics, biomedicine, the agri-food industries, and renewable energies constitute specific factors. "These affect both demographic change and energy transition processes, which are key elements. And EU Next Generation resources are available to address them."
Although there is growth, unemployment remains an issue. It is the lowest it has been since 2008, but the rate is over ten per cent. In the third quarter of 2025, there were 2.61 million unemployed. At the same time, employment increased by 118,400 to 22.39 million, a new record.
Manera believes that relatively robust employment is primarily due to labour reform. "This has led to job security and, crucially, a reduction in youth unemployment, which was above 50%; it is now practically half that. This explains the record number of people affiliated with social security and with a message that must be clear: the pension system is not in crisis. This was recently acknowledged by the president of the AIReF Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility."
He argues that Spain's economic growth, four times higher than the EU average, "is teaching the European Union something: that it is possible to maintain growth with a better distribution of income". "This is a crucial element." For Manera, the debate is no longer whether there is growth, but how and for whom. In order that positive economic figures translate into money in people's pockets and an alleviation of the cost of living, he states this should be through "better redistributive tools: a basic income, for example". "And also by deepening a progressive tax policy. Lowering taxes is not the most appropriate recipe to ensure that gains at the macro level reach the micro level."